Though TCU has regressed after its Cinderella run to the College Football Playoff last season, the Horned Frogs are just a couple of weeks removed from playing Texas down to the wire and a win for them means bowl eligibility. First, the Sooners need to beat TCU Friday afternoon a loss basically eliminates them from contention. Oklahoma doesn't control its path to Arlington, but some simple scenarios could get it there. Oklahoma State is 2-0 against Oklahoma and Kansas State, meaning it holds the head-to-head advantage in a tiebreaker scenario and thus controls its own destiny. The Cowboys close the season at home against a BYU team that's one win away from bowl eligibility, giving the Cougars plenty of motivation for an upset. Oklahoma State also needs just one more win to secure its spot in the Big 12 title game. More to come on this later, but the Longhorns are the only team left in the race that can brunt a loss.

A win moves the Horns to 11-1 overall and 8-1 in Big 12 play, making them the only one-loss team in the conference. All the Longhorns have to do is take care of business at home on Friday night against Texas Tech. Of the remaining competitors, Texas is in the best position.

Here's what each team needs to do to make it to the Big 12 title game, as well as what the landscape would look like if Texas loses. There are some complex tiebreaker scenarios that could come into play if chaos reigns during college football's rivalry week. Simply speaking, Texas and Oklahoma State are in prime position to clinch a berth while Oklahoma and Kansas State each need a couple of breaks to fall their way. Four teams have the most realistic shot of making the title game - Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State - though a plethora of other possibilities exist if three, or even all four, of those teams lose in Week 13. Although the 2023 college football regular season is entering its final full week, the race for the Big 12 Championship Game is still wide open.

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